2004: Predictions for a Rapidly Changing World
Pacific News Service, Commentary, Franz Schurmann, Posted: Dec 30, 2003
Editor's Note: Looking ahead to possible national and world events in 2004, the writer sees Bush dumping Cheney, Washington negotiating with a resurgent Taliban, and Africa as a new oil giant.
Predictions, whether they come true or not, help us look at the future with new eyes and prod us to rethink the world. In that spirit, here are some predictions for 2004:
1. Bush will be re-elected on November 2, 2004.
Reasoning: Big Republican California recall victory; third quarter GDP up 7.2 percent, highest over six prior quarters; Iraq guerrilla war simmering but not boiling.
2. If the Republicans do well in the March primaries, Bush will ask Dick Cheney to resign. He will then appoint Condoleezza Rice as his vice president.
Reasoning: Cheney now carries negative political weight. (He is head of the neo-cons discredited by the mess in Iraq, deeply involved in Enron doings and his company Halliburton is accused of overcharging the Pentagon). Both Rice and Hillary Clinton stand a good chance in 2008 of being the presidential candidates of their respective parties.
3. The Taliban are going to make big gains in 2004, forcing the United States to say "uncle" and start seriously talking with them.
Reasoning: The Taliban were never defeated by the Americans. Also, one-fourth of Pakistanis (140 million) are by language, religion and culture the same people as the Afghan Pashtuns. Many of them sympathize with or support their kinsmen. This is why the Bush administration could never make up its mind whether to regard Pakistanis as allies or enemies.
4. Some neo-cons are spreading the word that a new "axis of evil" has arisen in Latin America (Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina and Cuba). But Bush, rather than crack down on these four, will deal with each country individually.
Reasoning: The Western Hemisphere has its own "Iraq," namely Colombia, where Bogotá is now prone to Iraq-style urban warfare. If other "Colombias" erupt, the United States could face Latino versions of its current wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and the war on terror.
5. By 2010, much of the oil to fuel the world's millions of cars, trucks and planes is going to come from Africa.
Reasoning: For some time now the Anglo-American governments and corporations have wanted to mine the resources of the entire African continent. Africa's bloody conflicts have allowed the Anglo-Americans to become the continent's savior and exploiter at the same time.
6. There is no way to stop immigration into the United States, or the outsourcing of jobs overseas.
Reasoning: Cutting-edge American firms go overseas because foreign educational institutions are increasingly on a par with American universities. In America's economy, immigrants are indispensable. Many have skills and accept lower wages. And the spread of a vast American empire based on military technology serves to make American concerns first about the empire and only secondly about the homeland.
7. America has a long history of dumping its old friends and embracing its old enemies. In 2004 we'll see this happening to Taiwan and Israel.
Reasoning: The relationship between America and China is now as close as two empires can be, which spells bad news for Taiwan. For many decades, American presidents regarded the Soviets as their enemy as well as their partner in managing the world. Now America no longer sees Russia as a fit partner. On the other hand, China now is coming out of its deliberate isolation and assuming global roles. Republicans are in awe of its "socialist market economy."
In 1948, when the State of Israel was born, the United States and the USSR quickly recognized it. At the time, the two superpowers regarded the Arab and Muslim world as incurably passive. But now these two worlds have the power to inflict great damage on the Western world. Today, one can see in the Western media how far Israel has dropped down the popularity scale. And President Bush does his best to avoid photo-ops with Ariel Sharon.
8. The chances of a new terror attack aimed against the United States are slim.
Reasoning: Islamic fundamentalism has both similarities and dissimilarities to the tidal wave of communism that spread after both World Wars. One similarity is that people all over the world were convinced that an evil order was tottering on a chasm and that would be followed by a paradise. A second was that communism had a politically immortal leader, Comrade Vladimir Lenin.
Now many Muslims have a similar view that America is an evil order tottering on the brink, one that will soon be followed by paradise. They also have in Osama bin Laden, whether he is alive, dead or as disabled as Lenin was in his last four years, a politically immortal leader.
But the dissimilarities are also great. Communism, following its "Bible," Marxism, was a top-down organization. Al Qaeda, following the Wahhabi version of Islam, inherited the bottom-up democracy of the Bedouin tribes. So politically, Al Qaeda must listen to the many groups that make it up. And most of them want to overthrow their own governments rather than take on a colossus like the United States that can vent its anger by enormous destruction.
PNS Editor Franz Schurmann (fschurmann@pacificnews.org) is emeritus professor of history and sociology at U.C. Berkeley.
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